Thursday, March 27, 2008

Not-So-Catastrophic Global Warming 2008

An interesting interview took place recently that so far has managed to escape the mainstream media. It appeared in The Australian and covered the interview of Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist and senior fellow of Melbourne-based think tank the Institute of Public Affairs.

In the interview she discussed recent data analyzed from a relatively new (2002) weather satellite launched by NASA called Aqua. What makes this satellite unique is that in addition to collecting temperature data, for the first time we are now collecting data on cloud formation and water vapour.

By way of background, Gore, Inc. and the climatescareologists have predicated all their catastrophic climate meltdown scenarios on positive feedback scenarios. In a nutshell, that means global warming factors feed on themselves, thereby magnifying their effects; a kind of perpetual motion machine that accelerates.

What that means is this: Factors that all the historical data says might cause a .5 degree warming, they magnify into a 3, 5 or 8 degree rise.

This despite the fact that nothing in the existing data has ever demonstrated such a massively compounding effect. The reality is, most of our natural world operates primarily on negative feedback.

The other tidbit of background information you need is that all these scary scenarios are based on computer models that not only include these positive feedback scenarios, but they completely ignore the effects of water vapor and cloud cover in their models! The stated reason is these elements of our climate are too poorly understood, and too complex to accurately model.

[An ADHD Moment: Let me see if I understand this...the atmospheric component that comprises up to 95% of all greenhouse gases is completely ignored by the models, yet they can confidently blame CO2, which comprises approximately .038% of the atmosphere, for all global warming?]

Well, now we have something that's actually tackling this complex aspect of our atmosphere and, guess what? Now only does water vapor not act as a multiplier on global warming, it actually has a negative feedback role suppressing the rising heat.

Looking at the data since 2002, when the satellite was launched, indicated we've been on a temperature plateau for the past six years. Correlating that to data back to 1998, the recent high-water mark for global temperatures, we've actually decreased in temperature.

For anyone living in the northern hemisphere this past winter, we know there's been a significant decline in average temperatures! Just ask the Chinese or the boys in Baghdad. Here in Minnesota we matched low-temp records that dated back to the late 1800s.

Trust me, we were praying for some positive feedback on global warming!

So, once again this huge terrestrial ball upon which we live is proving to have built-in mechanisms and features we are only beginning to understand. Perhaps that's why it has survived as long as it has.

Even mankind, with all our wonders, are not even close to causing its demise.

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